So it’s been a while since I chimed in here. But I still check in often to read articles, look at polling numbers, and so on. And I have to say I’m surprised by the level of worry over the upcoming election. Therefore, please allow me four main points of analysis.
1. The Democratic Party learned a lot from 2016.
Yes, we were all stunned by Trump’s victory on election night in 2016. There were several factors that helped him get elected and many of these factors were things that the Democratic Party could control. First, Hillary Clinton’s campaign was guilty of the greatest case of political malpractice in the history of the United States of America. Gallivanting around North Carolina, Arizona, and other places, spending valuable time and energy there while largely ignoring the firewall states of Wisconsin, Michigan, Pennsylvania, and New Hampshire (which she almost lost) was an outrageously ill-advised allocation of resources. Add to that Clinton’s insistence on doing limited campaign rallies, primarily at big Democratic strongholds while failing to venture out into less populated areas of the battleground states, and you have a recipe for disaster.
There’s very little chance that the party is going to repeat these mistakes in 2020. Yes, there will be a lot of resources spent on the states of Florida, Nevada, Arizona, North Carolina, and Georgia, but the main focus will be those Rust Belt states that got away from us in 2016.
2. We’re in a better position now than we were in 2016.
There’s little doubt that the impeachment process has dominated many news cycles for the past several months. The majority of Americans understand that the shakedown of Ukraine is a real scandal, brought on by Trump himself. There’s a higher percentage of Americans who want Trump removed from office than there ever was who wanted Nixon removed from office. And with the constant drip drip of new incriminating documents coming out, there’s virtually no chance of this trend reversing itself in the near future. (Trump’s SOTU address might take place right in the middle of the impeachment trial and that will be good times for sure!)
Regarding polling numbers, we’re looking fairly good. Not great, but good. And this is with a Democratic base which is somewhat splintered among the different candidates. The EPIC-MRA poll of 600 likely Michigan voters released today shows all Democrats leading Trump. Notably, both Sanders and Biden reach the 50% mark in this poll. Again, this is with a somewhat divided base. One area that our side is undivided in is our dedication to getting rid of the sociopathic orange blob.
And if you look at the state by state data with regard to the Civiqs polls at the top of Dailykos.com, you’ll see Trump’s approval ratings are underwater in virtually every battleground state. Those are not re-elect numbers.
And finally, our country is growing more diverse with every passing moment. States like Arizona and Georgia are going to be included regularly in the ongoing discussions about The Battleground. My bold prediction is that Georgia will finally turn blue this year, owing mainly to demographic change.
3. No, Trump is not going to destroy our candidates.
There’s been a lot of talk on this site about “Trump eating X or Y nominee for lunch.” Um no, that’s not going to happen. The American people are already well aware of Trump’s campaigning style. A lot of people have tuned out Trump because they already know exactly what he’s going to say. In any event, Trump did throw the kitcken sink at Hillary in 2016, (with significant help from Russia), and she still could have and should have won. And there’s still one huge factor that many people are overlooking: Trump still doesn’t know anything. He doesn’t read the materials that his advisors give him and he still can’t answer questions about a variety of topics. This will come out during the debates. If anything, our nominee is going to eat him for lunch and not the other way around.
4. There’s nothing we can do about some things.
Republicans are generally going to vote Republican and there’s not much we can do to stop that. So why get stressed about things we can’t control? A few weeks ago, my uncle asked me why “these people” (meaning Republicans) keep getting elected. I explained the power of the Republican base by responding that “most Republicans are brain-dead robots, programmed to vote Republican.” And to a certain extent, that’s true. There’s very little we can do to take down the cult that the Republican party has become. What we can do is focus on doing everything we can to put responsible adults in charge of our great nation. I plan to donate, register new voters, canvass, and GOTV on election day.
In conclusion, worrying or getting stressed about the upcoming 2020 election doesn’t actually help anyone (least of all the people who are getting stressed out). Constantly saying things like, “But our nominee’s gonna be eaten for lunch” doesn’t help our chances of getting elected. GOTV does.