www.nytimes.com/…
There is a NYT article out tonight detailing a PPT presentation w/findings from a set of focus groups in OH and FL among young african american millennials. These voters are “Obama Surge” voters, meaning unlikely voters who showed up for Obama in 2012 and generally no one else (e.g., mid-term elections).
The focus groups were taken on Aug 3 and Aug 4, just after the Dem Convention by Dem pollster Cornell Belcher. This was released to the Times in order to draw attention to what they perceive as difficulties Hillary may have with reaching young black millennial voters in the hope that the campaign would move more aggressively to address the matter.
There are some inflammatory quotes (which of course the NYT has to highlight, because...hey, what’s an article about HRC without a cheap shot!) mainly from pro-Bernie millennials such as, “He’s a racist, and she is a liar, so really what’s the difference in choosing both or choosing neither?”
The study also included a “battleground poll” of 1100 Obama surge voters taken in early July, which showed some underperformance among young black millennials relative to 2012, including a 10 point gap among African Americans and 7% among all voters in the survey.
That said, in reading the presentation, the focus group did actually present HRC’s positions on important issues like criminal justice reform and based on the quotes, it made the participants much more enthusiastic about HRC. In one example, they showed a video of HRC with the mothers of the movement (who spoke at the Convention) and one quote from a participant was “I love this video because it seems like she is empowering them. They asked her for help and she said come together and fight together. It was like she was helping them to help her.” They also displayed evidence of Trump’s racism, and just like HRC’s speech in NV it shocked the audience because they hadn’t really known how neo-nazi like Trump is.
So, despite the NYT spin, I came away with the following observations:
*First, if you’re going to leak to the NYT, at least proofread your PPT. I saw at least 2 or 3 typos in the doc.
*Second, would it really surprise anyone that there might be a gap among a pro-Bernie crowd in a poll taken in early July when Bernie was still technically a candidate for President and his BoB friends were still spewing anti-HRC word dust cloud? Would it surprise anyone that in a focus group taken less than 1 week after the Convention there were still BoB sentiments to be found among some pro-Bernie folks?
*Third, is a 7 point gap in the polling group between Obama Nov. 2012 and HRC early July 2016 really a gap? It seems that it would be natural that one would have to work up to the optimal vote. It doesn’t happen overnight.
The study addresses things that I think the HRC campaign is already doing and will continue to do:
*Highlight Trump’s racism.
*Highlight Hillary’s own criminal justice reform package. African Americans over the age of 30 know this well...that’s why they voted for her in the primaries. Younger African Americans and younger millennials in general tuned HRC out in the primaries. They tuned in at the Convention and many tuned in to her NV speech when she highlighted Trump’s racism. Some more radio ads, town halls, and open discussions on her criminal justice reform package will add more voters.
*Talk about the collective power of voting: This was an Obama favorite, and the President will make that argument aggressively on her behalf. Hillary has also been doing GOTV events all over the battleground states, including in Cleveland, where this focus group was done.
Now, I personally would have preferred if HRC had added about 2-3 more such events in the last 2 weeks like the one she did in Cleveland during the 3rd week of August. I think these go a long way to energizing people. That said, these types of voters are harder to reach, require more investment of money and time, and raising that money in August was important to reaching those voters when it matters in September, October and November. She needed that time in August because Bernie Sanders did not concede the primary early enough, forcing her to manage and prioritize resources and scheduling in order to be in a position to bring the campaign’s A game in the last 60 days. We’re at that point now. Now, let’s go win this thing.