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View Diary: An ideological realignment driven by demography (130 comments)

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  •  It's not just demographics (8+ / 0-)

    It's also culture.  Whites are voting for Democrats because of specific reasons:  women are frightened by Republican culture wars.  Better-educated whites see the value of education, and are less likely to swallow Republican nostrums (unless they personally benefit.)

    John Judis and Ruy Teixeira called this shift almost a decade ago, looking into the future.  They called the demographic shift, as well as the shift of subsegments of the white non-Hispanic vote toward the Democrats.  They've been proven right in the main, and the trends are not yet completely played out.  Republicans will have to become a different party to generate a different trend, but they're stuck in the extremist, racist corner they've painted themselves into.  It's an ugly corner, one most people are not drawn to if they're not there already.

    Citizens United defeated by citizens, united.

    by Dallasdoc on Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 10:59:09 AM PST

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    •  Look at the differences in Texas vs California (5+ / 0-)

      to see that it isn't only about demographics, both states have large percentages of Latino/Hispanics and yet one is dominated by Democrats but the other (TX) is dominated by Republicans. What's the difference? Turnout. If we Democrats don't learn how to engage voters and get them out to elections we will continue to fail to take advantage of the demographic shift. The Democratic Party has to engage with voters all year long, year after year, not just for six months leading up to elections. Here in Guadalupe County, TX we've finally figure that out now we're trying to figure out how to do it.

      "I agree with you, I want to do it, now make me do it!" ~ FDR

      by JC Dufresne on Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 11:16:57 AM PST

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      •  the difference is more than turnout (3+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        Dallasdoc, erratic, bartcopfan

        california hit majority-minority a lot earlier than texas did, has always had a more democratic-tilting latino population than texas, has a much larger proportion of liberal white voters, has district lines that aren't drawn to minimize democratic and minority representation, and has a state economy more reliant on education and less reliant on energy extraction and the military (although once upon a time, CA was a lot more like TX in that regard). finally, both states tend to get in-migrations of left and right-wing ideologically-minded white voters, respectively, which reinforce their political trends.

        CA:
        non-hispanic white: 40%
        latino: 38%
        asian: 14%
        black:7%
        multiracial: 4%
        native american: 2%

        TX:
        non-hispanic white: 45%
        latino: 38%
        asian: 4%
        black: 12%
        multiracial: 2%
        native american: 1%

        •  And CA had Prop. 187 (4+ / 0-)

          ... which I suspect galvanized Latino elegtoral participation to a much greater degree than Texas has yet seen.  

          Interesting that while both states show the same proportion of Latinos in the population, California's Asian population more than makes up for its lower proportion of African-Americans.  Wonder when Republicans will start paying more attention to the fast growing Asian populations?

          Citizens United defeated by citizens, united.

          by Dallasdoc on Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 11:51:30 AM PST

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      •  May Ceiling Cat and FSM bless your efforts and (1+ / 0-)
        Recommended by:
        erratic

        inspire  others to do the same.  I hope I'm around to see Karl Rove's reaction when Texas turns blue.

        We must, indeed, all hang together, or assuredly we shall all hang separately. B. Franklin

        by Observerinvancouver on Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 12:09:35 PM PST

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