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View Diary: An ideological realignment driven by demography (130 comments)

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  •  Ideological shit from Democratic Centrism? (3+ / 0-)
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    AdManAnt, a2nite, wu ming

    I believe that the demographic shift is not just partisan, but also will have an impact on the ideological make internally of the Democratic Party.

    This type of article my Rahm for example is not likely to represent the Democrat of the next few decades:

    If you look at the ideological make up of the newer voters they are also, I believe, to the left of the current Democratic Party establishment.

    There is a lot of talk here of civil war within the GOP. But, I have to ask whether anyone thinks the centrist establishment will give up power easily on matters of policy difference to the new demographic ideological views?

    I have seen the occasional post here with comments along the lines of these demographic shifts should be ignored when it it mentioned that the shifts aren't just going to affect the GOP.

    I hope this is not the position that the establishment take.

    I don't believe the new demographics are like the old ones. They are poorer due to the establishment. THey are on the outside looking in. They aren't as likley as the White middle class who got the benefit of the bargain to put up with things because the new demographics have not gotten the benefit of the bargain of supporting one party over another.

    I think the Democrats are the likely winner of these voters. But I think it will come with a fight that the Centrist will have to lose first because they represent an establishment that's just as against the interest of the newer demogrpahics  in its own way.

    •  Another Possibility Is (2+ / 0-)
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      bruh1, wu ming

      The One Percent successfully completing their capture of the Democratic Part -- resulting in essentially a one party rule at their service, similar to the rule of the PRI in Mexico for 70+ years. Most voters might have ideas to the left of the new Center-Right/Right Democratic Party, but they would have no one to vote for.

      "I'll believe that corporations are people when I see Rick Perry execute one."

      by bink on Sun Nov 25, 2012 at 11:15:00 AM PST

      [ Parent ]

      •  That's a voice I have seen too (1+ / 0-)
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        But I don't think the U.S. electorate would put up with a one party system

        I think its naturally designed for a two party system

        Whether that means they will accept a conservative party like the current GOP is another matter. The answer to that is no. But what could also happen is a split betetween the two parties existing in the Democratic Party with the conservatives one side and liberals on the other.

        Separately, the ideological make up of the voters isn't so much the issue as the comfort of the voters.

        The new element is that the new voters weren't previously a part of the establishment like the newer voters. Take housing. There have been a lot of forces that has allow discrimination in housing. The same with education. The same with employment. I believe someone  just had a post up about that.

        The other theory is that we could see an apartheid situation due to the "Whiteness" being  a factor in how the power has been previous distributed as those with an existing grip on power try to maintain it through new rules. I suppose that's possible, but highly unlikley.

        I don't know how things swill end up. I see different theories. What is clear is that while the Democrats  may gain, its not clear what it all may mean.

        One thing is clear. None of th

    •  The decline of the GOP could lead to a Dem split? (0+ / 0-)

      Suppose the GOP doubles down on being the Old White Male party. Then it is demographically doomed to becoming more and more irrelevant.

      This is nothing but good new for the Democrats, right?

      Well, yes, in the short term. But let's engage in some creative crystal-ball gazing about the more distant future, say 20 years on.

      Suppose the GOP shrinks down to the point where no GOP candidate has a shot at the Presidency and the Dems have comfortable control of both parties. Then strains may begin to show in the Democratic coalition - factions will start to complain that the giant coalition is no longer addressing their needs.

      Those factions could break off to form a third party. Or possibly the GOP might reconfigure itself so as to absorb one of the factions. (If you're skeptical of the second possibility, don't forget that the GOP did just that with segregationists in 1968.)

      Just idle speculation. But clearly there are big changes in party alignment up ahead ...

      •  That's the point that I am getting at (0+ / 0-)

        That ideological shifts aren't going to come with just changing one party. both parties will be changed by a shift.

        Whether the Democrats smartly shift to the left to co opt the shift versus staying as it is today like the GOP so that the changes may shift things politically in other ways is the open ended question to me.

        The advantage in the next few election cycles may be Democratic, but the shifts will bring with it more than just partisan gains and changes.

    •  i could see both party coalitions collapsing (2+ / 0-)
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      bruh1, bink

      if the economy at the human scale is not dealt with effectively. i could see the big money that currently rents the GOP switching sides and ditching the social conservatives, and then the democrats splintering under the weight of economic contradictions.

      a three-party system of left, right and corporate could make for interesting politics, given the uneven spatial distribution of those sorts of voters.

      •  Ca is a good example of (0+ / 0-)

        voters are telling the corporate democrats they want certain things through how they voted on issues during the election separate and a part from giving the democrats a super majority, and the democrats are responding to this super majority by promising to do nothing:

        I think the next few years are going to make it very clear that the Democrats arms aren't being twisted by circumstance. They were making the choices theywanted to make all along. They would rather lose a clear mandate and advantage than go against the establishment.

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