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"Romney has pretty much nailed down Florida," said Brad Coker of Mason-Dixon Polling and Research, which conducted the poll for the Times and its media partners. "Unless something dramatically changes — an October surprise, a major gaffe — Romney's going to win Florida. [... T]they should be able to call Florida as soon as the polls close in Pensacola if they do their exit polling right," Coker said.
Mason Dixon's final Florida poll? Romney 51, Obama 45. Nice call there, Brad. How about David Paleologos of Suffolk University, who a month ago said Suffolk would not be polling Florida or Virginia anymore because Romney had it in the bag:
“I think in places like North Carolina, Virginia and Florida, we’ve already painted those red, we’re not polling any of those states again,” Paleologos said Tuesday night on Fox’s "The O’Reilly Factor." “We’re focusing on the remaining states.”
Even O'Reilly knew better, asking Paleologos if he was certain those three states were already in the bag for Romney. Paleologos' answer is classic:
That’s right, and here’s why. Before the debate, the Suffolk poll had Obama ahead 46 to 43 [in Florida] in the head-to-head number,” Paleologos responded. “A poor place to be for a couple of reasons. Number one, his ballot test, his head-to-head number was below 47 percent before the debate, and it’s very, very difficult when you have the known quantity, the incumbent, to claw your way up to 50. So that was a very, very poor place for him to be. “So we’re looking at this polling data not only in Florida but in Virginia and North Carolina and it’s overwhelming,” Paleologos concluded. [...] In Virginia, where late last month Suffolk found Obama with a 2-point advantage, the president still leads, according to the RCP average. But Virginia is similarly close to Florida, with Obama leading by less than 1 percentage point.
At least Coker's own polling said Romney would win. Paleologos ignored his own polling! Inglorious!