Dailykos Research 2000 poll internals about subgroups(men, women, democrats, republicans, white, black..)tell many stories, though, as many point out, these subgroup poll numbers are subject to greater statistical margins of error than the overall poll number which is published on the Dailykos front page.
With that caveat, this diary is an attempt to illustrate some internals, specifically of subgroups of men, women, the 30-44 and 45-59 age groups, and Republicans, via trend comparisons in Dailykos Research 2000 polling from October 5, 2008 to today, October 28 2008.
My motivation to look at the internals was a concern about fluctuating support for Obama among the polled subgroups of men and the 30-44 age group in this period. These fluctations are in marked contrast to Obama's relatively steady figures in the 45-59 age group and his gently declining but still extremely strong lead among women in the same period.
A 6 point increase in Republican support for McCain since October 5 does not seem to explain a rather worrying 13 point fall of Obama lead in the 30-44 age group.
After setting it all out, I then express my personal opinion that there is a link between the worrying poll figures among 30-44 age group and men on one hand and McCain-Palin rabblerousing misrepresentation about taxes on the other.
Here are some dates as reference:
September 26, 2008 : First Presidential debate
October 2, 2008 : Vice Presidential debate
October 7, 2008 : Second Presidential debate
October 15, 2008 : Third Presidential debate
So here are plots and observations about polling trends among some subgroups(men, women, 30-44, 45-59, Republicans) from October 5 to October 28:
- Obama's overall lead over McCain has fluctuated on both sides of 10 points.(That's fine)
- Obama has a big lead over McCain among women, which was 26 points on October 5 and 18 points on October 28.(Strong lead)
- Men have fluctuated between favoring McCain overall and favoring Obama overall in this period - McCain by up to 5 points at one time and Obama by up to 3 points at another time.(Not sure why men and women have this big difference in overall support)
- Obama has steady support among the 45-59 age group which fluctuates around 8 points. (Good for everyone)
- (This is the scary one)Obama's support among 30-44 has declined from 8 points ahead of McCain on October 5 to 5 points behind McCain on October 28, a drop of 13 points. The steepest declines came immediately after October 16 and October 25 and there was recovery in between these dates.
- Republican support for McCain has improved 6 points since October 5(as expected, since public attention gets more focussed on the upcoming election). However, an increase in Republican support for McCain by 6 points does not explain a 13 point drop in Obama's lead among the 30-44 age group in the same period. (Updated: for purposes of this comparison, please note that polled Republicans are a smaller subgroup than the polled 30-44 age subgroup).
- Looking at it over a longer period from September 23- October 28, Obama's lead over McCain in the 30-44 age group rose from 0-8 points from September 23-October 10 and the first decline began after October 10. However Obama held an overall lead in this age group till a couple of days after October 15, the day of the third Presidential debate.
Similar increases in support for Obama in the 45-59 age group in the same period were sustained after October 10 and today remain around 8 points. Not so in the 30-44 age group which has seen a fall in Obama's lead over McCain to -5 points.
Here is my opinion as conclusion:
For a few days after the third debate on October 15, there was prolonged media coverage of Joe the Plumber's purported tax-related grievances. Once Joe the Plumber was debunked a few days later, Obama's figures among all groups rose again.
I haven't been able to figure the cause for the second drop in the 30-44 age group since October 25. If the cause is indeed the McCain campaign's egegregious misrepresentation of Obama's tax plan, then hopefully Obama will clarify forcefully in the near future.