Republicans have done a fantastic job of playing up expectations for this fall's election. They've likened this fall's election to the Revolutionary War. They've predicted that they will retake either one or both houses of Congress. They've said that the rise of the Tea Party movement is going to be the deciding factor in their quest to take back the country from socialism. They're fundraising with talk of "Speaker Boehner." They seem, publically at least, certain of victory.
What if things don't turn as expected? What will the Republican say about themselves should they fail to retake either house of Congress?
I'm of one mind. The Republican Party's position on why they failed will be simple: They weren't conservative enough. They will also lay blame elsewhere, of course. They'll say that their candidates weren't experienced enough. They'll allege voter fraud by the NAACP or La Raza. They'll blame Obama. But mainly, they'll retreat further and further into wignut land. They'll demand even more conservatism. They'll say not enough emphasis was placed on social issues like abortion and gay marriage. They'll say that terrorism was not fought with enough vigor. They'll retreat, even further, into a base that is exclusively white, overwhelmingly male, rural, and old. And, of course, they'll make a pilgrimage to the grave of Ronald Reagan to beseech his ghost for advice.
What of the Democrats?
Will Democrats read their loss of seats as a cautionary tale? A warning of sorts? Will they continue to be led by the nose by an opposition that is extreme and out of touch? Will they reach the counter-intuitive conclusion that the reason they lost seats was some sort of signal that they went too far, did too much? Will they interpret the election as a referendum on themselves? Will they conclude that the election was a rejection of clean energy legislation, immigration reform, and further deficit spending to keep the economy from spiraling into depression?
It is the wrong way to read victory.
What Washington Democrats need to know is this: they will lose seats, but they will not lose the majority of the American people. It is for this reason that they must read the midterm election, should they keep both houses of Congress, as the American people giving them another shot at the job. The American people took a look at what the Republicans offered, and decided that the alternative was much worse than what they've already got. But that does not mean they are pleased with what they have gotten so far, as the right track/wrong track numbers consistently indicate. Should they come of this election with their Congressional majority intact, the simple way to interpret it is: this time, get it right.
The Democrats have enacted legislation that is taking the country in the right direction, but is not strong enough to clear the effectiveness hurdle. That is what people want: an effective government that gets the right things done. Therefore, the Democratic majority of the 112th Congress should look as opportunity to pass better legislation and not just more of it. They do not want to continue the ineffective results of bipartisanship or else they would have given the GOP the majority.
Using the election mandate to gut Social Security would be a mistake. Using the mandate to pass pithy energy legislation that fails to solve the fossil fuel problem would be a mistake. Passing another ineffective tax cut to create jobs would be mistake. Failing to reform the rules of the Senate would be a devastating mistake.
If Democrats come through this election with their majority intact, this will be the time for Democrats to stand up and be real, bona-fide Democrats. Take the opportunity to pass strong measures that make a real difference for the American people. Wind down the wars and the war machine that goes with it. Invest in this nation's future and in its people. Do it in a way that has an immediate impact on the vast majority of everyday people.
That is the way Democrats will make 2006, 2008, and 2010 not only elections where the people rejected the extremism of Republicans, but elections that realigned politics for the 21st century.