Welcome to Election Day! Remember, even if you can't do official GOTV-related activities, you can pick up that phone and call your family and friends to make sure they have voted. And that goes doubly if they live in a battleground state, like my in-laws in New Hampshire.
So anyway, a bunch of us here at Daily Kos HQ wanted to give our predictions. First column is the race, second column is the poll composites from Huffington Post. Jeff, Steve and Dan are from the Elections team. Drew is our data scientist. Barb and Jed are from Editorial. Michael and Paul are from Activism. And Jen and Walter are from our Social Media team.
To stress, the Louisiana and Georgia predictions are for tonight's results, not final results during any potential runoff.
I'm predicting that Democrats lose Arkansas, Montana, South Dakota, and West Virginia. Eventually, I'm betting they lose Louisiana as well. I'm predicting no pickups, for a net loss of five seats and a 50-50 + Biden Senate.
On the governor's side of things, Democrats will hopefully have a good night. We've got Pennsylvania all locked up. Beyond that, I'm betting that the Independent/Democratic fusion ticket will win in Alaska, plus pickups in Florida, Kansas, Maine, Michigan and Wisconsin. Republicans will pick up Arkansas, and I'm guessing they grab Massachusetts as well, which they will, unless the heavily Democratic undecided vote decides on party loyalty.
Head below the fold for a deeper explanation of my predictions.
Starting with the Senate, I'm being obviously optimistic with Alaska, Colorado and Iowa. In Colorado, I'm banking that early vote trends are in line with 2010 and 2012, and if so, we win by a hair. However, this is an all-vote-by-mail election, so those trends may no longer be relevant. So if the Dems' vaunted GOTV program doesn't squeeze out our vote, then the polls will be validated and we'll lose the state. So really—GOTV to prove me right. Remember—Colorado has same-day voter registration. So if you know anyone in Colorado, even if they aren't registered to vote, nag them until they do.
In Iowa, the polls have tightened this last week, but what tipped me over the edge was the consistent lead Democrat Bruce Braley has had in the early vote—about 20 points according to several polls. In fact, one reason for the movement in the polls has been that early vote, and I suspect that Democrats who were getting screened out as "unlikely" were suddenly included because having already voted, they were the most "likely" voters possible. It's a theory, anyway, but it gives me hope. And again, if you know anyone in Iowa ...
Which leaves Alaska. Note—Democrats have been screaming out their early vote advantages in various states, but they're very quiet in Alaska. That's by design, and I'm told (privately) that the early vote results were stellar, and validated their unprecedented GOTV operations in Native Alaskan areas. It could be spin, but usually spin is public. So I have a choice between public polls, which are sketchy at best in Alaska, or trust in the DSCC's ground game. No one is likely to ever get rich betting on our low-performing base to turn out in an off-year election, but I'm doing it anyway.
On to the governor races.
Michigan polling this week has definitely suggested a tightening race, and the last two polls of the contest had it all tied up. Only 10 percent of the state's vote has been cast early (traditional absentees, I assume), so it's a good ol' fashioned Election Day in the Wolverine State. So ... tied race, most of it being decided today, in a state in which the DSCC laid big GOTV infrastructure in anticipation of a Senate contest that fizzled in the end? I feel pretty hopeful about it.
In Wisconsin, the best pollster in the state gave incumbent Republican Gov. Scott Walker a seven-point lead. The safe bet would be to run with that. Maybe not seven, but Walker +3 or +4. Like Michigan, this is a state were most of the action is on Election Day, but unlike Michigan, there isn't any outside force goosing GOTV efforts. So really, this is the race I'm most likely to get wrong, and maybe catastrophically so. The data says we'll lose, my gut says we'll lose. But like Kierkegaard I'm taking a leap of faith.
Beyond those two nailbiters, I'm expecting the state's partisan lean to carry the incumbent Democrats to victory in Illinois and Connecticut, despite their deep unpopularity. Florida will be tight, but the Democratic early vote has been stellar and Charlie Crist is perhaps the most skilled retail politician since Bill Clinton. As of last week, Republican Gov. Rick Scott had spent over $70 million of the $100 million spent on this race, and even that shouldn't be enough to save him. But still, close, close, close.