TPM Cafe is Dead, Baby

I hate to pick on Josh Marshall's crew again on CT-Sen, but dammit, they just ask for it. Today, their elections page writes:

It's now been 2 full weeks since Ned Lamont defeated Senator Joe Lieberman in the Democratic primary for U.S. Senate. Whether it's true or not, the general perception of this period seems to be that Joe has rolled up his sleeves and gotten down to business while Ned's head remains floating in the rarified climes of his primary win. Obviously this thing is far from over but Joe had about the best post-primary-loss 2 weeks he could've hoped for. Instead of pulling a Blondie and fading away and radiating, Lieberman went on the offensive and fought back effectively, if not admirably.

This is the same obtuse take we read here from some diarists who failed to understand that what Lieberman did was merely become the GOP candidate in the race. As I wrote yesterday, what Joe did was a political blunder and that he now is trying to undo the damage. I'll explain a bit more on the flip.  

What TPM Cafe sees as a Lieberman positive, as shown here:

Now Hotline takes a closer look at that latest Quinnipiac poll and notes some interesting numbers that suggest, "the anti-war sentiment in CT isn't as fervent as anticipated." The poll also bodes well for the Republican incumbents in the three big U.S. House races in the 2nd, 4th, and 5th districts. Rachel Weiner has more on the unpredictable and critically important 2nd district showdown between Representative Rob Simmons (R) and challenger Joe Courtney (D).

Meanwhile, George Bush wants no part of that Connecticut Senate racket, and the Midterm Roundup can't say it blames him. While Bush said at a news conference Monday that he wouldn't campaign for any candidate in Connecticut, he gave Lieberman a boost by defending his administration's criticism of Lamont and praise for Lieberman. On top of the Bush administration's tacit support, Crooks and Liars notes that Lieberman has become a featured player on conservative websites like NewsMax and Power Line.

Seems a losing position to me. TPM Cafe see Bush giving Lieberman a boost as a positive development for Joe. Well, it is true that Lieberman is now the Bush/GOP candidate in Connecticut. Is that the winning position in 2006 in Connecticut? I say no. TPM Cafe seems to think yes.

And the Q poll is not the last word of course. Today we have seen a new Rasmussen poll showing Lamont closing the gap on Lieberman. With the new ARG poll showing a dead heat as well, maybe TPM Cafe will want to rethink their analysis.

Yet again, the TPM Cafe election coverage, with the notable exception of the great Greg Sargent, is showing a certain misunderstanding of the dynamic of the CT-Sen race.

Don't know what is causing it, but I am finding their takes to be, well, pretty lousy.