David Wallace, the Mayor of Sugarland, Tom DeLay's home town, has thrown his hat into the write in
ring, announcing that he will oppose Nick Lampson. What are his chances?
Check out the flip.
The Texas Democratic Party and its lawyers have done a masterful job in rubbing the Bugman's face in the shit he created as a result of his racist (as found by the SCOTUS) mid-decade congressional redistricting in Texas. They've forced the issue by creating a scenario where the Republicans will not have a candidate on the ballot in TX:22. As a result, they've handed us one more district with which to take over the House.
But wait, what about the write-in candidate Wallace? Here's the Texas Election Code on write in candidates.
§ 146.022. CANDIDATE'S NAME REQUIRED TO APPEAR ON LIST.
A write-in vote may not be counted unless the name written in appears on the list of write-in candidates required by Section 146.031.
§ 146.023. DECLARATION OF WRITE-IN CANDIDACY REQUIRED.
(a) To be entitled to a place on the list of write-in candidates, a candidate must make a declaration of write-in candidacy.
(b) A declaration of write-in candidacy must, in addition to satisfying the requirements prescribed by Section 141.031 for an application for a place on the ballot, be accompanied by the appropriate filing fee or, instead of the filing fee, a petition that satisfies the requirements prescribed by Subchapter C, Chapter
141.
(c) A candidate may not file a declaration of write-in candidacy for more than one office. If a person files more than one declaration of write-in candidacy in violation of this subsection, each declaration filed subsequent to the first one filed is invalid.
(d) A declaration of write-in candidacy is public information immediately on its filing.
A declared write in candidate gets to have his/her name printed, not on the ballot itself, but rather on a list which is taped to the polling station where the voter retires to mark the ballot. That means that unless the voter is looking for the write in list, it would not be unusual to miss it altogether before the ballot is marked. Moreover, in the 22d voters won't actually be able to "write" the name of their write in candidate on the ballot, because they will be using eSlate machines. In order to "write in" a candidate, the voter will have to go through a convoluted process involving prompting the machine to allow you to do this, and then typing in the name of the write in candidate from a screen. Not very user friendly at all if you are so-disposed. Moreover, you won't be able to vote straight ticket, a useful tool for the Rs in TX:22. If you want to write in a candidate against Nick, you'll have to vote all the way down the line to write in your candidate. I'm sure Rick Perry won't be pleased with this, seeing as how he's got a passle of candidates running against him for governor.
So how does it look for Wallace?
Wallace has name recognition and money-raising ability. He has more than $157,000 cash on hand as of June 30, that party officials need to take on former Rep. Nick Lampson, the Democratic nominee. Lampson had amassed more than $2 million in his campaign treasury as of June 30 in preparation for a race against DeLay.
That's a huge money deficit that Wallace needs to surmount to make a legitimate go at it, if it can be made at all. And it will be tricky. Would you be willing to bet $100,000 on a football team 6 points behind with time running out and one play left, a Hail Mary from its own 40 yard line, right before the play unfolds? That's what the R money machine is looking at. Moreover, I don't know about Wallace's supposed name recognition. While he is certainly known in Sugarland, do you know the name of the mayor of a city of 60,000 or so inhabitants, 150 miles away from where you live?
What is more likely, however, is that Wallace is looking at building up his recognition for a race in 2008:
Austin political consultant Bill Miller called a write-in campaign "ludicrous".
"It is handing the seat to the Democrats,'' he said. "Republicans cannot win this seat with a write-in candidate, I don't care what name they write in.''
"What a write-in candidate gains is a leg up in the next primary," Miller said. Even if the candidate loses, he or she will be able to build name identification and visibility.
"Losing once is no big deal,'' Miller said. "Lose more than once, then you are branded a loser.''
But even this makes the situation look grimmer and grimmer for the Republican effort to take this seat, once comfortably in their bag. Anyone can declare as a write in candidate, by getting 500 petition signers, or paying a filing fee. So dear Wallace may not be alone. Shelley Sekula-Gibbs, an ambitiuos Houston City Council member, has been coveting this seat ever since DeLay announced he would be dropping out of the race. She has already spent tens of thousands of dollars announcing her intentions in this regard, in foregone anticipation of the courts ruling in favor of the Republican efforts to place a Republican on the ballot:
"People are giving me their input. I will make a decision in the near future," Sekula-Gibbs said. "The opportunity is very interesting. I am keenly interested in this seat and have been open about my desire. This is a different situation."
A write-in candidacy is not "insurmountable," Sekula-Gibbs said. "The demographics of the district suggest a Republican can win. Voters would not only have to be convinced I was the right candidate, but familiar with the process."
Sekula-Gibbs, who has the backing of prodigious campaign contributors such as homebuilder Bob Perry, stated a willingness to commit personal money as well.
You can imagine what this does to Republican chances at winning the seat if there are two write in candidates. The winner in November only needs a plurality of the vote. I smile to think that Sekula-Gibbs shouldn't be expected to give Wallace an easy run for the seat in 2008. She wants the same name recognition that the race would bring her that Wallace is looking for.
All in all, the Texas Democratic Party and their brilliant lawyers have already won one for the home team, even before the starting gun has sounded.