I've noticed something interesting. If you ignore the bouncy, unreliable (and useless, to boot) national polls, along with overlooking all the GOP astroturf fly by night polls, this race is miraculously stable. Obama's firewall in the states that matter is maintained and only GOP pollsters are saying otherwise. If you have questions about my methods, this diary should answer them. These are a list of polls I do not include:
1) Polls affiliated with the GOP (ex: Rasmussen, We Ask America, Susquehanna)
2) Polls with little to no track record (ex: Gravis Marketing)
3) Polls with a bad track record (ex: ARG, Zogby)
4) Internet polls (ex: Zogby Interactive, YouGov)
5) Internal polls
Check below for the maps.
In the toss ups map, although there has been many polls, the race is in stasis from my last update 4 days ago. The only change is Minnesota, which moved from Likely D -> Solid D. But even this was hardly notable, due to the fact that it was only because of a SurveyUSA and PPP poll showing Obama +10 there. Meaning, if another reliable poll shows Obama ahead by 9, it will go right back to Likely D. Now for the no toss ups map:
The no toss-ups map is unchanged, Obama is projected to win the electoral college 303-235. Since the last update Obama's leads in most states have gotten a bit more cushion, with the notable (and somewhat weird) exception of Washington state. Now for the Senate map:
Very little change here as well. The only race that has moved since last time is Virginia, which went from Likely D -> Lean D.
Safe D: ME(R)^
Likely D: MO(D), OH(D), PA(D), FL(D)
Lean D: AZ(R)^ CT(D), MA(R)^, VA(D), WI(D)
Toss Up: IN(R), MT(D), ND(D)
Lean R: NV(R)
Safe R: NE(D)^
Senate without Toss Ups, Angus King as Dem: 53-44-3.
Senate assuming candidate with tiny leads wins: 55-45. (GOP picks up NE and MT, Dems pick up ME, MA, AZ, IN).