After a week of almost no change in the projection, there are 4 of them today, all in favor of the Democrats.
There have been two changes in the map including toss ups:
Virginia: Toss Up -> Lean D
Nevada: Lean D -> Likely D
Virginia is still on a knife's edge, so it could easily go back to toss up. The no toss ups map remains unchanged, Obama is projected to win 303-235.
And now for the Senate:
Two major moves here:
Massachusetts: Lean D -> Likely D
Nevada: Lean R -> Toss Up
In Massachusetts, a poll was released showing Warren ahead by 6 points. But that wasn't the only reason she got a bump. Their previous poll showed Brown ahead by 3 points, a 9 point swing. This doesn't look like it's happening for the Republicans, even disregarding Obama's coattails in the state.
I've always been skeptical of Heller's chances in Nevada due to pollsters consistently underestimating the Democratic vote (saying Angle would win by 3 when Reid won by 5). Toss up more accurately describes this race, and Heller could easily get swept away in the tide.
Time will tell if Mourdock's Akin-esque comments end up hurting him. The race has been very scantly polled, and the highly regarded Howey poll showed Donnelly winning by 2 points, which is why it's projected as a Dem gain.
Safe D: ME(R)^
Likely D: MA(R)^ MO(D), OH(D), PA(D), FL(D)
Lean D: AZ(R)^ CT(D), VA(D), WI(D)
Toss Up: IN(R), MT(D), ND(D), NV(R)
Safe R: NE(D)^
Senate without Toss Ups, Angus King as Dem: 53-43-4.
Senate assuming candidate with tiny leads wins: 55-45. (GOP picks up NE and MT, Dems pick up ME, MA, AZ, IN).