Update - various commenters who are federal employees have informed me that the federal agencies are making preparations for a shutdown. This undermines my core thesis, but I figured I'd leave the diary in place, on the chance that it contributes to the discussion.
I know, it's been spectacularly fun to watch the Republican acts of self-immolation, and wax righteously against their irresponsibility - no need to stop! But for those who are actually concerned that the government shutdown might happen on Monday, there's a pretty obvious indication why it won't. The last time this was a credible threat, official notifications went out to government employees, informing them who was considered essential, and would be required to continue coming to work in the event of a shutdown.
To my knowledge, there's been no such notification this time. This isn't like announcing a snow day school closing - it's a complicated process that requires formal notification (granted, so are snow days, but on a relatively much simpler scale). So the simple, boring answer to the question that the media is buzzing so crazily about, which could be resolved by any journalist with a similarly half-assed commitment to logical analysis as to mine, with bonus points for looking up some links on wikipedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/...).
But the drama's way more interesting and important than a logical analysis, right? Cause of all that media responsibility stuff...
I kinda shot my wad in the intro, not much more to add here. One interesting question is why this is getting so much serious attention. It certainly is an entertaining narrative, for the entertainment-oriented, among which I'd include the media, and certain members of the Republican party who are making a lot of noise right now. But what about everyone else?
Well, hopefully, they've tuned it out and are focussed on more interesting/important work right now. The (not fully confirmed) Napoleon quote "Never interfere with an enemy while he’s in the process of destroying himself." certainly applies here. Arguably, even the worst-case scenario (gov't shutdown) is beneficial, because it sets precedent for Obama refusing to cede ground on the debt limit negotiations.
There are a few ways that this can play out:
-The key players already know they have the votes to get through this.
-Short-term Continuing Resolutions will keep government funded.
-Fallback tactics to keep government funded are lined up.
From my perspective, Obama tends to play his hand early. He's made it clear that the government shutdown issue and the debt limit aren't open for negotiation, I think that's how he's going to play it. In previous brinksmanship incidents where Obama was willing to negotiate with Republicans, he showed those hands pretty clearly beforehand as well.
So my advice would be to buy about a month's worth of popcorn, and start popping! We just got front row seats to the Republican Meltdown! But no, it's not going to shut them up - right now rabid frothing is the best thing they have going for them.