The human race is about to face its greatest threat since the Cuban missile crisis when the US and the USSR were within a hair triggered moment of a full exchange of their nuclear weapons. And 99% don't even know anything about this new threat because they have been totally distracted by climate change/global warming. I measure the priority of a threat by how many Americans will die if nothing is done. I don't see climate change/global warming killing 10 million Americans before 2040, but the energy crisis could easy do it by 2025.
This is a two part diary and this is part two. Part one is “Why the 47% Must Die!”
In Part One of this diary, I let you in on a secret: There are two paths into the future. The second one Dr. Roper and I call “The Blue Line” future. The Blue Line is the line going across the top of the graph. It represents the world population if we had all the energy we needed. Why is it important about having energy, because energy represents food, clean water, clean air, etc? Without the energy we could not reach or sustain the population represented by the Blue Line.
The Chart
For those who did not read Part One of this two part diary, an explanation of the chart above (the chart has been updated to data now known) is needed. The first line to examine is the Red Line, Population Fit (Fit is a statistical term meaning a smoothing algorithm is used to remove a saw tooth appearance to the data curve.) that starts at 1.5 billion people on earth at 1900. You will notice it charges almost straight up during the 1950 to 2000 time frame. This is because of the Black Line which is the use of fossil fuels by those same people.
The consumption of fossil fuels triggers the massive growth in human population and the more people leads to more demand for energy which leads to more growth in supplying more fossil fuels to satisfy that demand. This continues to the present.
More Lines from the Present to the Future
At this point in time, several lines join the chart. Let’s start with the Blue Line which represents what many futurist claims that humanity will achieve the much slower human population growth by raising the whole world to the level of western lifestyles. And we have the energy needed to make it happen. The number used in the chart is an estimate because the number ranges from 7.5 billion to 12 billion and 8 billion is good enough for the purposes of this discussion.
The next line is the Blue Green line which defines the upper limit of the production of renewable energy the human race needs to sustain our current civilization. The line starts in 2000 because that is when the construction of utility scaled solar power stations started to show up in sufficient quantity to be seen on the chart. The line crosses the Blue Line somewhere between 2100 and 2125, but is not shown.
The next new line is the Gray Line which represents a more likely future of the supply of fossil fuels than the Black Line. The Gray Line is the Black Line modified by EROEI Ratio which predicts a much faster drop off of production of fossil fuels than is currently envisioned. This is also known as the energy cliff. The bad news about the Gray Line is that does not show the drop off as steep as it could be nor as soon as it could be. It may have already started. If so, the Red Line will fall even faster.
The Projections
These lines are projections based on data supplied by government, NGOs, Wall Street, and academia. Each projection will now be examined, starting at the present time.
• The Black Line is the global production of fossil fuels. You will notice the tipping point (or Peak Production) is around 2025. Then it drops rapidly to the end of the century.
• The Gray Line is the global production of fossil fuels with EROEI Ratio factored into the Black Line. This line represents the fact that it cost energy to find, extract, refine, and distribute fossil fuels. When the cost in energy invested equals profit in energy returned, then you are out of that business unless the government gets involved. Right now we have companies in the oil and gas business that are spending more on the capital expense side then they are receiving for the product. On Wall Street, this is when a company goes out of business or finds another line of investment.
• The Blue Line and the Red Line are the two paths into the future of the human race. I have described the Blue Line. Now we discuss the Red Line which is the projection of the human population if we continue to rely on fossil fuels alone. As the supply of fossil fuels drop, so does the human population of the earth. In this version, the Red Line has been modified to follow the Gray Line and has the rate of decline much steeper and much lower. The population will bottom out near 300 million which represents a 96% die off. The population will recover to 400 million by 2300. Some of the ultra rich believe they can ride it out if they isolate, hide well enough, or build a strong enough fortress. It is like buying a seat on an ark in the movie 2012.
• The area of green represents the level of energy we need to have available annually. The annual demand is represented by the difference between the Blue Green Line and the Gray Line. As the chart shows, the rate of construction of solar power will be very large starting in 2025. We need to build or have already built by 2025 about 32 Quad of solar power on line and in production of electricity. Our rate of construction in the US in 2013 was 2.5 GWh or 8.525 GBtu per year. Instead, we need to be building 1 GWh per week. By 2050, we will need about 140 Quad in operation. We can go through all of the math, but the bottom line is we are not going to keep up at the rate we are going today.
Now we know the size of the problem and the time line for each stage of the task. “How do we do it?” is the question that is on everyone’s mind. Luckily, we have a number of people who have been spending the money and making the effort to build the base we will need. The only problem is they all are thinking we have until 2050 to do this job. As the chart shows, we have to be doing it now and should have started as early as President Reagan’s time in office. But we did not take the correct path into the future. And the penalty will be paid by the 47% in lives.
A New and Correct Path
What is the correct path? We can look to another nation that is in desperate need of energy independence, Germany. Germany is looking the Russian bear, President Putin, in the eye and can see constant political pressure to do Russia’s bidding through energy dependence via natural gas. In response to this national need, a research project funded by Germany’s Federal Ministry for the Environment and reported on by Siemens Running on Renewables is an outline of that path. The purpose of the project was to see if Germany and its economy could be operated completely on renewable energy sources. This means no fossil fuels or nuclear power anywhere in the system. That same plan is applicable for the US and most of the industrialized world. There are three key components for the plan to work.
1. Electric power supply which is in two parts;
a. Generation – The US is in extremely dismal state of total renewable power generation. While solar on roof tops sounds great, we need square miles of solar panels built each month.
b. Storage – Currently, most storage is in “the Grid”. This sort of works with a fossil fuel fed grid, it will not support a grid with only renewable.
2. Distribution (the Grid) is picking up power from the supply points and delivering the power to the users. The US has a functioning distribution system that is old and prone to failure. Fixing it would be too expensive. It should be replaced, instead. Distribution has three components;
a. Physical access – This means wires and cables. While wireless power is possible over very short distances (feet or better inches), it is extremely wasteful over long distances.
b. Management of distribution – While fossil fuel powered grids are stable with only power plant failure or distribution cable failure as the cause in variation, renewable systems have variation built into the power generation itself. Couple that with the variation in demand for power as the users turn on demand or turn it off.
c. Conditioning of the power – This is the combination of cycle rate, 50 or 60 hertz, and power levels along each connection point in the grid. I would need an electrical engineer to explain the rest of conditioning of electrical power.
3. Users are where the power is used. The US has started to implement energy efficiency plans, such as the STAR program. Remember, we will be having new and very hungry users, namely the transportation systems. Right now, cars are the main new users. However, in a fossil fuel free world, trucks (of all sizes), buses, trains, etc. will be added to the list of electricity users.
This can be done. All we need is the political will.
Building Blocks
The German plan gives us a list of the building blocks we need to acquire. And we have most of them already available in companies right here is the US.
• First Solar – world’s largest producer of thin-film solar panels and sells them in utility scale solar power plants the company builds around the world.
• Extreme Power – A recognized leader in energy storage systems. This company will provide the stationary storage systems that collects electricity from the solar voltaic units and wind turbine units, conditions the power, and then supplies the power to the local grid.
• American Superconductor - now powering gigawatts of renewable energy globally and enhancing the performance and reliability of power networks. This is the capability of moving energy from a energy surplus area (strong sunlight or wind) to a energy deficit area (overcast, calm, or night).
• Tesla Motors – While Tesla is well known for building the finest full electric cars, they are not as well known for building the best batteries. The factories being built by Tesla will build about a Gigawatt of batteries. Most of the batteries will go into the storage systems similar to the ones built by Extreme Power.
• Autonomous Car - Google appears to have the leadership in autonomous/automated cars at this time. Level 2 automated electric cars combined with plugless power strips means almost unlimited range until the owner runs out of money for the power or the power striped road ends.
• Plugless Power – This company’s product is the stepping stone to the plugless power strip used in road beds to extend the range of electric vehicles.
• SkyTran – This company’s product is nearly the ultimate in people mover until we get “beam me up, Scotty” capability. Its purpose is to move 1 to 2 people in as fast and efficiently as possible directly to their destination without stopping and be available 24/7/366.
• Electric Freight Shuttle – This system will be replacing the old reliable diesel-electric engine because there won’t be any more diesel. The new system will haul heavy freight in the same manner as SkyTran, point to point without stopping 24/7/366.
• Solar Bridges (my contribution) – When I said we will need to build square miles of solar panels, this is one of the solutions. This construction is built in our cities and is connected directly to the local grid. It will generate enough electricity to supply power to the current users and the new users, electric vehicles, SkyTran vehicles, and electric railroad units.
Why Are We Not Doing It Already?
We have the building blocks. So, why aren’t we doing it? The main reason is that no one has figured out how to transform from the current system to the renewable without massive disruptions to the economy. Figuring this out is the charter of my non-profit corporation, Keep America Moving. However, I found the real obstacle is not technology, engineering, or even environmental review. It was politics. And then I realized I needed a political solution and that is one of the main reasons I am running for the US Congress TX6.
The Politics
Why is the politics so hard and why does it get in the way? To many people who work and own the old way this new way is threatening their jobs, their companies, and their way of life. They only see it as competition that needs to be resisted and opposed. And they were here first and have acquired wealth and power to use to resist and oppose. That is why this is a power struggle in a political contest.
Global warming/climate change is a very good case study. We have deniers that have religious reasons, have business reasons, etc. As long as people have different goals and priorities, we will have political conflict. And if we let that get out of control, we have war.
From the evidence I have seen, I think President elect Obama was told the real story on our energy future. But he knew he could not tell John and Jane Q. Public their world was going to end like in the disaster movies and for the same reason. The President knew he had to have a very good plan in place and working when he told the general public. So, he started implementing the plan as soon as he was in office. He incorporated into the stimulus package many of the building blocks we needed to build the foundation of a renewable and sustainable energy future. Most of these were private enterprises that were given boosts through the stimulus program signed into law in the first week of his presidency. We know about the one big failure, Solyndra. But we don’t hear too much about the successes. Those successes will be many of the building blocks of our sustainable future.
Conclusion
I will combine the two parts of this diary together for the conclusion. We have evidence of a group of people who think their way is the best path into the future for the human race. The problem with their plan is it will cause the death of 80% to 97% of the current human population on this earth. And it would push the remainder of the human population back to the feudal age in technology, medical science, and life style.
The alternative which I believe is the better path for humanity will continue this civilization which as President Obama said in his United Nations speech is the best time to be born. Let us not throw away all of what we bought at such a cost in blood, sweat, and treasure over the last 4,000 years.
Last note: I was watching an interview of CEO Ellen Dorsey of the Wallace Fund and Chair Valerie Rockefeller Wayne discussing their plans to divest their funds from Big Oil. Then I read this article where the President of the same Rockefeller fund was working with a group of institutions and individuals to divest their holdings in the fossil fuels industry.
Now, how many of you believe that all of these hard-nosed Wall Street institutions and individuals are doing this because a bunch of people took a walk on Wall Street and in front of the United Nations building? I didn’t either. I think they have done the same analysis that I did in my diary “Has Big Oil Already Killed Us All?” and they have the same chart I have at the top of this diary but with much better numbers. They know that Big Fossil Fuels are going out of business. As is typical of Wall Street types, they are protecting their principal. The parades were just good cover and good PR.
The bad news is the stocks are not falling off of a cliff, yet. The stocks are up because all of those local brokers and financial advisers do not know what is happening and are telling their ‘mom and pop’ clients those stocks are a good buy. Then when the fossil fuel companies plunge over the cliff, the ‘mom and pop’ clients will be holding the diaper pail and will go join the 47%.
David E. Cozad, Democratic Nominee US Congress TX6
Website: Cozad for Congress
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