Republican Paul Babeu may get a shot at redemption after his 2012 House campaign collapsed
Both parties were caught by surprise on Tuesday when Democratic Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick announced her Senate campaign. There are
plenty of potential candidates from each party who are eyeing her swingy northern Arizona seat, but most of them are waiting for the U.S. Supreme Court decision to rule on the constitutionality of the state's independent redistricting commission. If the court rules the GOP's way, they'll have the opportunity to make this district as tough for Democrats to win as they can.
On the blue side, state Sen. Catherine Miranda wasted little time making her interest known, though she represents almost none of AZ-01 in the legislature. Former state Rep. Chris Deschene, who lost the 2010 secretary of state race 58-42, is also considering according to his spokeswoman. Deschene got plenty of attention last year when he ran for president of the Navajo Nation but was disqualified for not speaking Navajo fluently. Local Democrats say he'd be a top recruit, though he'd need to give up his post at the U.S. Department of Energy. Coconino County Board Chair Elizabeth Archuleta also says she's thinking about running, while Navajo County Attorney Brad Carlyon hasn't ruled anything out.
The Arizona Republic's Rebekah Sanders also mentions two other potential Democratic candidates, though there's no word if they're interested. State Sen. Carlyle Begay's district is entirely located in the 1st, though his support for this year's GOP state budget could be a liability in a primary. State Sen. Barbara McGuire's seat is split between AZ-01 and the safely red AZ-04, but she'd be an interesting recruit. In the last two cycles, McGuire pulled off narrow wins in a district that Romney carried 53-45, so she has experience winning in a difficult seat. Democratic consultant Andy Barr also tossed in 2014 gubernatorial nominee Fred DuVal's name, though DuVal previously said he's only interested in another statewide bid.
On the GOP side, rancher and 2014 candidate Gary Kiehne so far has the primary to himself, but he should have company soon. Ex-state House Speaker Andy Tobin, who narrowly beat Kiehne in the primary, confirms that he's interested but he's waiting for the redistricting case to play out. State Senate Majority Whip Steve Pierce has also confirmed his interest, and Speaker David Gowan's office has also said he might go for it. Most of Gowan's seat is in AZ-02 and he could also challenge Republican Rep. Martha McSally in the primary, but Gowan is likely to carve out a district for himself if he gets the chance.
Pinal County Sheriff Paul Babeu also didn't rule anything out. Babeu's 2012 bid for the neighboring AZ-04 ended after it emerged that he had dated an undocumented immigrant and then threatened to deport him. Babeu did win re-election that November and he went on to star in a spot for 2014 gubernatorial candidate Christine Jones, so maybe enough time has passed that he can run another serious House campaign. Some other potential GOP contenders include ex-Secretary of State and 2014 gubernatorial candidate Ken Bennett, Payson Mayor Kenny Evans, 2012 nominee Jonathan Paton, state Sen. Steve Smith, and state Residential Utility Consumer Office Director David Tenney.