Charles Gaba
calls it: 12 million people have signed up for health insurance through the Obamacare exchanges. Over 9 million, according to his calculus, signed up through the federal site, HealthCare.gov. And there's probably about 12.4 million in Medicaid expansion. All in all, we're talking about 7 percent of the population getting some kind of coverage through the law, private or Medicaid. That means bad news for Republicans on a couple of fronts—how in the hell do you repeal that? And what in the hell are you going to do for 9 million people if the Supreme Court takes away their subsidies? Now
it's possible that the numbers won't be quite so huge, but we're still talking millions of people. Add in the Medicaid enrollees, and 7 percent of the population.
The caveat? Not all of the people who sign up for a plan end up with Obamacare coverage. Last year, 88 percent of people paid at least their first month's premium; if that holds, about 11 million people will have paid for their coverage. But once you factor in policy changes, he assumes that the number of people with actual coverage—effectuated plans, in the parlance—will be about 10.1 million through the summer.
People come and go out of insurance because people have big life changes—jobs, moves, marriage, divorce, death—but 10 million people who would love
private insurance under repeal are 10 million people likely to be rather unhappy to know that the Republicans were taking it away from them in exchange for a vague promise of "patient-centered" something. Also, too, the whole insurance industry would not be too happy about losing 10 million customers! Of course, they could just be blowing smoke on that whole repeal thing, and they probably are.
That doesn't get them off the hook, though, if the Supreme Court challenge they've been egging on prevails. In that case, there's as many as 9 million people, mostly living in Republican-run states, who will have their insurance yanked immediately, even without repeal. And as of yet, no Republican help in sight. Now would not be a fun time to be a Republican healthcare policy wonk.