Past diaries in this series:
Pennsylvania (17)
Illinois (17)
Alabama (6) and Minnesota (7)
North Carolina (14)
Ohio, like many Midwestern and North Atlantic states, has been growing much slower than the national rate for a while. As such the Buckeye State has lost 1-2 CDs every decade since its peak in the 1970s.
2010 was a crucial year for Ohio Democrats, and unfortunately little could be done to stop the red tide. As a result, Ohio Republicans came up with a map that could easily stand up next to North Carolina's as the least fair map in the country. You can see that map here.
Dem Average refers to "all 2008 statewide races", which is weird because I think only President was statewide in 2008, which means they should be identical. I think it probably also includes 2006 statewide numbers.
Southwest
District 1 Blue
Voting-age population (VAP): 69.5 White, 24.6 Black
2008: 54.1 Obama
Average: 51.1 Dem
Incumbent Steve Chabot (R-Cincinnati) lives here. Brad Wenstrup (R-Cincinnati) lives here but all his territory remains in the 2nd. Cincy and Hamilton County. This withdraws entirely from ruby red Warren County which is only there as part of a naked gerrymander. Chabot is a good politician, but without a favorable map to prop him up he's vulnerable. Former one-term Rep. Steve Driehaus could go for it again. Tossup/Tilt D
District 2 Green
VAP: 93.9 W
2008: 36.7 Obama
Average: 42.5 Dem
Open, though like I said Rep. Wenstrup would likely run here. South Central Ohio. Pulling out of Cincinnati makes this district brutally red. Safe R
District 3Lime
VAP: 65.7 W, 24.3 B
2008: 66.5 Obama
Average: 64.7 Dem
Incumbents Joyce Beatty (D-Columbus) and Steve Stivers (R-Columbus) both live here. Rep. Stivers most likely runs in the 12th. This district includes the vast majority of the city of Columbus (and its enclaves) and parts of Franklin County. Solidly blue, but loses some safety compared to the current district because it has to expand. Safe D
District 8 Gold
VAP: 91.6 W
2008: 34.4 Obama
Average: 37.1 Dem
Incumbent Speaker John Boehner (R-West Chester) lives here. Suburban and exurban Cincinnaiti, based in Butler County. This gets a couple points redder, but nothing major. Safe R
District 10 Purple
VAP: 78.2 W, 16.3 B
2008: 50.6 Obama
Average: 49.8 Dem
Incumbent Mike Turner (R-Dayton) lives here. Montgomery County (Dayton), Springfield and Xenia. This is a swingy district, but Turner is very popular in his district so we'd likely have to wait for him to retire to be competitive here. Likely R as long as Turner's around.
District 12 Black
VAP: 86.9 W, 6.7 B
2008: 43.8 Obama
Average: 44.4 Dem
Open, though as I said above Steve Stivers would likely run here. Central Ohio, southern Columbus metropolitan area. Safe R
Southeast
District 6 Purple
VAP: 94.8 W
2008: 47.7 Obama
Average: 61 Dem
Incumbent Bill Johnson (R-Marietta) lives here. Southeastern Ohio, coal country. Democrats have seen a collapse here, but only another election or two will tell how much that has to do with race at the national level. Adding college town Athens back to the district helps. Tossup
District 7
VAP: 95.1 W
2008: 40.9 Obama
Average: 44.3 Dem
Incumbent Pat Tiberi (R-Galena) lives here. Outer Columbus and moving up towards Cleveland, including the cities of Delaware and Ashland. Safe R
Northwest
District 4 Red
VAP: 92.2 W
2008: 39 Obama
Average: 43.1 Dem
Incumenber Jim Jordan (R-Lima) lives here. Northwest central Ohio, including Lima, Marion and Mansfield. Jim Jordan continues to be able to be a thorn in everyone's side. Safe R
District 5 Yellow
VAP: 82 W, 10.6 B
2008: 57.2 Obama
Average: 58.4 Dem
Incumbents Marcy Kaptur (D-Toledo) and Bob Latta (R-Bowling Green) live here. Northwest Ohio. Adding Lucas County in its entirety back in changes this district substantially. Kaptur would be at home here. Safe D
District 9 Black
VAP: 88.7 W
2008: 53.2 Obama
Average: 58
Incumbent Bob Gibbs (R-Avon) lives here. Coastal Lake Erie, based in Sandusky, Elyria, Lorain and Medina. No obvious candidates on the Democratic side, but someone should be able to give Gibbs (if he runs here) a run for his money. Lean D
Cleveland/Northeast
District 11 Lime
VAP: 49.2 W, 42.8 B
2008: 78.1 Obama
Average: 78.4 Dem
Plurality white. Incumbent Marcia Fudge (D-Cleveland) lives here. The entire city of Cleveland (almost), some suburbs in Cuyahoga County and part of Lake County. White plurality by only 0.1% of the total population. Safe D, black hold
District 13
VAP: 88.7 W, 5 B
2008: 55 Obama
Average: 60.3 Dem
Incumbent Jim Renacci (R-Cleveland) likely lives here, or if he doesn't would run here. A sliver of Cleveland, Cuyahoga, Summit and Portage Counties. Renacci has shown himself to be a somewhat lazy campaigner, so he might be able to be taken out relatively easily. Sadly, Dennis Kucinich might go for a comeback here. Unless he's moved to Washington state. Lean D
District 14 Red
VAP: 88.3 W, 7.5 B
2008: 56.1 Obama
Average: 64.5 Dem
Incumbents Tim Ryan (D-Niles) and David Joyce (R-Russell Township) both live here. David Joyce's 14th is largely the one that's eliminated from the old map, since between the racial gerrymander of Fudge's district and the vote sinking of Ryan's it doesn't really deserve to exist in a fair(er) map. This might be a little too blue for Joyce, who has run pretty well in a swingy district (or attracted terrible opponents), to win. Likely D
District 15 Green
VAP: 84.5 W, 11.5 B
2008: 56.7 Obama
Average: 60.3 Dem
Open. Akron and Canton. Former Akron-area Rep. Betty Sutton (D) could run here and do very well. Likely D
Well, that's it. What do you think?