PRRI has a new poll out (they are a live caller poll) showing Hillary up by 11 points. The key points:
Trump has only a 4 point lead: 45-41 among white voters.
Hillary leads 72-17 among minority voters.
Hillary leads among college educated white voters 53-37. Her lead among female voters has expanded to 61-28 (52-35 among white females).
Trump leads among non-college educated white men by a margin of 65-22, and college educated white males by a margin of 46-39. Among non-college educated white women, the two are tied at 40-40 and Hillary leads among college educated white females by a 68-29 margin.
White evangelicals support Trump 65-16, but Clinton is much more competitive among other white Christian voters (42-42 among white mainline protestants, and Clinton leads 46-42 among white catholics).
Some observations:
*Hillary has improved among non-college educated white women. She is now even with Trump, after Trump had Hillary down in the low 30s among this group. Trump has been losing these soft supporters to Hillary.
*Hillary is also improving among religious voters who are not evangelicals. Trump’s #s among evangelicals are about the same as McCain’s. That’s actually a little below what I expected, and it tells me that he might not have enough juice in any battleground state.
*To determine whether the final result is closer or not depends on where the as of yet uncommitted voters go. There are 11% uncommitted minority voters. Those will overwhelmingly go to Clinton, in my view. The key is the 14% of white voters who are uncommitted. If they split roughly evenly with Johnson taking some votes, then this 11 point lead probably holds up. There are 13% uncommitted non college educated white males, 20% uncommitted non college educated white females, 3% uncommitted college educated white females, and 15% uncommitted college educated white males.
Theoretically, Trump has some room to grow among the uncommitted, but he will be hurt by both Johnson and Clinton’s increasing appeal to non college educated white females voters. I could see the margin going down to 6 or 7, but not below that. I could also see it in the 8-12 point range, with the likely result coalescing around 8-9 points.
www.prri.org/...