This is a new poll of the presidential race in Arizona by Saguaro Strategies, an AZ polling and consulting firm that seems to work mainly for Democrats, including the AZ Dem Party. Here are some details:
Dates: Oct 22 — 24
Sample size: 2385 LV
Party Reg: R+6: 43% R, 37% D, 20% I (Actual reg: 35% R — 30%D — 34% I);
Gender: 53% F, 47% M
Age breakdown: 18-34 (17%); 35-44 (16%); 45-54 (25%); 55-64(18%); 65+ (24%).
No breakdown by race demos.
MOE: 3%
24% have already voted. 45% more will vote by mail. 6% more will vote early, in-person. Only 25% will vote on election day.
This poll pushed leaners as the write-up specifically noted that other AZ polls have as many as 15% undecided. Clinton leads by 2 points with only 1% undecided.
The thing I would note is that 60% of the sample was from Maricopa County (Phoenix). Hillary would appear to be competitive enough there to have a shot to win.
This is a D poll, so take it for what its worth, but D polls are not as biased as one might think. They’ve actually been pretty accurate in presidential years. AZ is definitely in play.
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