Ok, so the usual worries have crept in to DKos following the Comey madness and the usual erratic tracking polls. So, after scouring twitter and the web for more information, here is an update on the state of the race in FL.
From Steve Schale’s memo (Schale ran Obama’s GOTV operation in 2012/2008. He is regarded as an expert on FL Politics). His memo is here: steveschale.squarespace.com/...):
You can read the details but I would note some key observations from Schale:
- The EV electorate is getting more diverse. Now 70% white, 13.5% latino, 11% AA. Schale states that this FL electorate will be more diverse than 2012. 44% of the likely electorate has already voted.
- About that AA vote: He expects it will reach 13.9% (share of actual registration). 13% is the target for most winning scenarios. So while we have some work to do, we’re much closer to the target than Politico and others would have one believe. Need a big GOTV effort, but the AA vote is the most reliable bloc we have and we will get that vote out.
- About that Latino vote: Latinos are turning out big. In addition, 50% of Hispanic Democrats, and 55% of Hispanic NPAs are basically unlikely voters. They’re voting for Hillary.
- Schale also hints at something which I’ve been mentioning for a while since the Marist FL poll came out: registered Republicans who are Latino may be splitting their tickets by voting for HRC & Rubio. It would explain how Marist has a 17 point lead for HRC in the early vote despite D’s & R’s casting the about the same # of ballots.
- One other note: GOP has a 16,000 cast vote edge over Dems currently, but they are cannibalizing their election day vote whereas our EV has a much larger # of unlikely voters. Their current ‘lead’ is based on cannibalizing or shifting their election day voters to the EV (per Schale).
- The biggest issue that Schale harps on: Dems have a lot of unreturned ballots. So if you’re in FL, send the ******** ballot in! The Clinton campaign and volunteers should be hitting lists of people who have received ballots and following up to get them to turn the ballots in.
Now, Tom Bonier has provided more detail around the make up of the vote. Bonier runs Targetsmart, a polling and data analytics firm that works for Dems. Here are a few choice tweets:
What Bonier is saying is that the 20% of voters who are registered unaffiliated are millennials and minority voters and they skew Dem. In other words, they’re Bernie voters.
Targetsmart is releasing its own tracking poll of FL tomorrow and he hints that the results will “change the conventional wisdom of where the race stands.” That’s a provocative statement, but if you have a more diverse electorate, and unaffiliateds are voting for HRC, it suggests an HRC lead at some level.
Putting all of this together, what I see is the following:
The Dem Latino margin is larger than Obama 2012. There are also more latinos in the electorate. The electorate is also less white. Growth in the AA vote from the current trend will supplement an electoral majority.
Bernie voters are making the difference in FL. They are improving HRC’s margins among white voters; they are turning out to vote; and they’re voting Dem.
Trump is getting his base GOP vote out, but he is underperforming in Duval County, is running behind in Hillsborough County and the I-4 (incidentally, HRC is in that region today), and in my view is bound to underperform Romney in the big So. FL counties much like we are seeing in NOVA.
Because of the structure of the Dem vote, I believe HRC has many more election day voters to offset what is typically a GOP strong point.
In short, I believe HRC is quietly on pace for a win in FL. Assuming we hit our turnout numbers, I think the margin will line up to 300,000 to 500,000 votes. The reason it will be that big is because Bernie voters (who are registered independents) are voting for her. They’re seizing control of their future in FL.
Now, if those Dems will just fill out those ballots they’ve received and return them with proper postage, they’ll make this diary seem prescient. If they don’t then all bets are off;) That said, Dems have turned out in FL historically; that’s why the races have been close. I don't have too many concerns that FL Dems will send in those ballots or vote in person to help Team Blue win.