*Updated: Sorry folks I meant to clarify that these numbers in the first paragraph refer to Clark County (Las Vegas).
It was a good day for our side in Nevada today. Just over 36,000 people voted today in Clark County. That’s a big jump from the same Wednesday from four years ago, when only 28,000 people voted in Clark — about a 28% increase. And Democrats netted around 4,800 votes over the Republicans today in Clark County. The breakdown was 16,000 Dems, 11,200 Reps, and 8,800 Inds. This reverses a somewhat anemic couple of days for us. And what’s even better is that on this same day four years ago in Clark County, our net gain was only 4,000. So this is a nice jump.
As of now, statewide, we have a partisan vote advantage of 34,575 with two days of early voting to go. At this point in 2012, our advantage was roughly 35,000. But the percentage of statewide active voters went up by about 18% from 2012 to 2016, so our percentage advantage is a little lower this time around. For instance, at the end of the first week of early voting in 2012, our percentage advantage statewide was +8.0%. This time around, it was +7.07% after the first week. So, a slight dip.
At the end of the early voting period in 2012, our advantage was 48,257. So we have our work cut out for us, but I’m not too worried about it. The last day of the early voting period is always the biggest. In Clark County alone, in the final two days of the early voting period, Democrats netted 15,400 over the Republicans. So I can see us plausibly reaching the same advantage we had in 2012 or even besting it this year. In 2012, a whopping 48,095 people voted in-person on the final day of early voting in Clark County.
My prediction is that we’ll probably have a cushion of about 47,000 Democratic minus Republican votes statewide at the end of the early voting period. I’d love to get even higher than that. If you live in Nevada, by all means, get out there and vote early! And don’t let anyone you know wait until election day!
We are going to win Nevada. Good night all.
And by the way, go Cubs!