I’m pretty sure I saw something diaried about this, but I’m not completely certain. In any case, you can never have too much information!
I just had a look at the crosstabs for the excellent Latino Decisions Tracking Poll, and they’re really fascinating!
Just to preface this, let’s go back and look at their final wave of polling from 2012. In that report, their final prediction of the Latino vote was:
Obama 73%, Romney 24%. (+49)
The exit poll from that election showed:
Obama 71%, Romney 27%. (+44)
So as we can clearly see, Latino Decisions final poll was quite accurate.
The latest wave of polling for the 2016 election shows:
Clinton 74%, Trump 14%. (+60)
So, even if the Latino Decisions poll is off by a few points, we are absolutely looking at margins that are going to be significantly better for Clinton than they were for Obama. Obviously this has huge implications up and down the ballot in states like Nevada, Arizona, Florida, and Texas.
But looking inside the internals is even more interesting. First of all, they show that Latino voters are preparing to vote for downballot Democrats to the tune of 72% to 19% (!!!). Wow. This includes 16% of self-described Latino Republicans and 96% of Latino Democrats.
And when it comes to the question of the presidential, Clinton leads Latino Democrats 98% to 1%. Whoa! Among Latino Independents, she leads 54% to 16% with 19% opting for third party candidates and 11% undecided (You know where I’m placing my money on THAT one). Even among Latino Republicans, Trump’s support isn’t very solid. He only leads Clinton 61% to 24%, which may confirm at least some of the reports we’ve been seeing of Republican crossover support for Clinton in Florida.
My prediction is that on election day, the final exit poll with regard to Latinos will look like this:
Clinton 76%, Trump 19% (+57).
Now watch me be perfectly correct on election day.
(P.S. If the Clinton campaign didn’t think it could win Arizona, they wouldn’t be campaigning there at this point in the year)
Here is a link to those internals:
www.latinodecisions.com/...