It was a very good day for our side in Nevada yesterday. But before I get into the numbers, allow me to make a few observations:
1. Overall, the Washoe numbers (Reno) are slightly better as of now than they were in 2012. Washoe is a swing/bellwether county.
2. The rural areas look worse for us this time around. But the rural areas only account for about 12% of Nevada’s population, so there you go.
3. Generally, the numbers look similar to 2012. In 2012, Obama carried the state by just under 7 points.
Now, let’s get to it!
First, the Clark County numbers from yesterday:
40,660 people voted in-person in Clark. That’s a 25% jump from the same day 4 years ago.
Of the people who voted in person yesterday, roughly 18,000 were Democrats and 12,200 were Republicans, for a margin of about 5,800. The margin on this day four years ago was 5,700 so we’re right on schedule.
Our overall partisan advantage among people who have cast votes in Clark County is 61,377 as of now. That’s up from the margin of 60,073 we enjoyed in 2012.
In Washoe County, at this point in 2012, the Republicans led by 357. This time around, we lead by around 1,000.
In the rural areas, in 2012, the Republicans’ lead was about 21,000 at this point. This time, it seems to be about 25,000.
Our statewide margin as of now is 37,701. Four years ago, it was about 39,000. So we are down a bit from four years ago, and when you consider population growth, we’re probably off by a bit more. And not all the rural counties have reported from yesterday — when they do, our margin will go down to about 36,500 or so. Still fairly solid.
***TODAY is the last day of early voting in Nevada! If you are in Nevada, make your friends and family vote! Unless they are voting for the orange moron, in which case, lock them in the basement for a few days. On this day in 2012, over 48,000 people voted in-person in Clark County. I believe that figure could exceed 50,000 today.
In any case, I believe that Nevada is looking good. Jon Ralston, who is an expert when it comes to Nevada politics, believes we are in a solid position. And don’t forget, of all the states in the union, Nevada seems to confound pollsters the most. In 2008, pollsters showed Obama leading Nevada by an average of 6 points and he won by about 13. In 2012, pollsters showed Obama leading Nevada by an average of 4 points and he won by almost 7. Also, in 2012, the polls showed Dean Heller having a solid 6 point lead over Shelley Berkley and Heller won by just one point. And of course, in 2010 Harry Reid was trailing by 3 points in the polls only to defeat Sharon Angle by 6 points when the votes were actually counted.
As Nevada goes, so goes the nation. Nevada has voted with the winner in every presidential contest since 1912, with the exception of 1976, when Jimmy Carter lost it narrowly to Gerald Ford.