More optimistic than many here are predicting, but I have longed believed the polls overall were shorting Biden and the Dems a couple of points. I tended not think it so much when the aggregate showed a +10 Biden lead, but that is the popular vote margin I foresee even with the lead having gone to 8–9 points.
Biden reaches 413 EVs by taking Texas and Ohio by less than 1%, Iowa by 1.8%, and Georgia by 2.5%. His closest loss will by Alaska, followed by South Carolina, Missouri, and Kansas.
Sorry to say Doug Jones will be ousted from the Senate in Alabama, but we will win Colorado, Arizona, Maine, North Carolina, both Georgia seats, Iowa, Montana, Alaska, and South Carolina. Net gain of 9.
I don’t have any specific House race predictions beyond the 14-seat gain, but the dems may not lose any incumbents.
First exit poll info coming in less than an hour.