There was some conversation last week about the recent upturn in movement in the Presidential approval poll posted at the top of this page. Since it’s inception it has been notable for it’s usually glacial pace of change. Sometimes it does show rapid movement on particular issues at crucial times—Trump’s Impeachment and the COVID19 outbreak are two examples of proof that, if nothing else, these polls are engaged in dynamic survey taking. Some may have suspected there was flawed methodology, an over-redundance of the same subjects from survey to survey. We have enough examples to know this is not a problem.
However, with Trump’s approval, there is generally not much movement in the polls in general. Civiqs rate of change has been slower than most other polls, but they have been consistent in showing that not much at all moves the needle on Trump. However, since mid-May that has not held true. Civiqs has again been consistent with other polls in showing a sharp turn against Trump. On May 16 the approval spread had been 43–54 for 10 straight days. In the discussion that took place last week, I pointed out that the spread had gone from a long-steady 10–11 points to 12–13 points in the previous two weeks, and that was significant movement for Civiqs. Another commented that was statistical noise in polling. Normally that would be true, but given Civiqs normal dynamics, I though it was at least somewhat significant.
As of today, I really have to say. my case is made. The tracker shows Trump’s approval at –16. Click on the image and follow the red and blue lines. The glacier has thawed!