Not only the Senate, but Team Democracy has a real chance to hold onto the House!
I just updated a close analysis of the Washington Post page tracking 64 competitive House Races. There seems to be a discrepancy between the 211 R + 203 D = 414 seats supposedly called, and 435 minus the 17 seats their chart is showing as undecided, giving 418.
I am assuming that the difference is the 4 seats called for the D’s Saturday PM (NY-18, MD-6, and 2 in NV) would bring the D total to 207. (The other possibility is that 4 seats other than the 64 in the Post chart have not yet been called.)
Of those 17, based on the current leads and % of total votes in, in looks to me as if 15 seats colored pink and light blue by the Post will turn solid red and blue respectively, as follows:
2 seats going to Ranked Choice redistribution of votes: AK-AL and ME-2 will elect the D’s who are leading.
4 Seats where the R is leading: CA-27, CA-41, CA-45, and NY-22 will likely elect Rs.
7 where the D is leading: AZ-1, CA-9, CA-47, CA-49, CO-6, NM-2, and OR-6 will likely elect Ds.
That would bring the Rs to 211 + 4 = 215 and the Ds to 207 + 2 + 7 = 216.
4 seats remain, where the R is leading but the “Blue shift” of mailed ballots counted late might reverse that, could still elect D’s:
In CA-13, Adam Gray (D) trails by only 84 votes with 61% of votes counted.
In CA-22, where Valadao (R) leads Rudy Salas by 2,878 votes but only 53% of the votes have been counted, the Post says their model slightly favors Salas.
The Post is not venturing a guess for AZ-6 where Kirsten Engel is trailing by 1,382 votes (0.4%) with 87% in.
OR-5, where D Jamie McLeod-Skinner is trailing by 7,199 votes (2.2%) with 93% counted, the Post now says slightly favors R Chavez-DeRemer.
I devoutly hope Jamie will pull it out, but don’t expect it. But if my assumptions are correct, and if the D’s win 2 or more of those 4 seats, they will control the House.
Of course that would still give veto power to the most conservative members of the caucus (minus Kurt Schrader whom Jamie defeated in the primary) who derailed Biden’s agenda by insisting on splitting Build Back Better from the must-pass Infrastructure bill, which gave Manchinema the opportunity to gut the most popular parts, and delayed passage almost a year.
But it would be YOOOOGELY better than the total gridlock and chaos the repugs would impose if they win.
KEEP HOPE ALIVE!