There is a meme brewing in the media that is not rooted in reality, but must nonetheless be addressed. The meme goes like this - Romney is closing fast, and his improvement in the national and swing state polls means that will likely win, and by a large margin.
So lets see how the President could be in trouble:
1) Over the past few days, most of the polling aggregators show the national race to be tied, with neither side winning by more than half a percent. If we assume that undecided voters are more likely than not to break slightly for the challenger (which I think is fair), the Governor is in the driver seat.
Therefore, the first way the President is in big trouble is that if we pass a constitutional amendment in the next two weeks that replaces the Electoral College with the popular vote.
2) Most of the key swing state polls that comprise the President's Firewall to 270 electoral votes show between a 2 - 3 point lead for the President, with few undecided voters. However, if we dig deeper into these polls, we see that that margin improves by at least a percent if we use pollsters that use live interviewers to call cell phones. And it decreases by at least a percent if we look only at the robo-pollsters.
So the second reason the President could be in big trouble in the swing states is if the robo-pollsters who do not call cell phones (30% of the population), are somehow more accurate than those that do. Otherwise, the President is too far ahead in the states that matter and can just "run out the clock".
3) Virtually all of the undecided voters break for Romney. While nothing is impossible, Romney has stopped gaining since the second debate, and while he may take the undecided voters by a small margin, that is unlikely.
So the third reason the President could be in big trouble is if all the undecided voters break for the challenger.
So why is all this so important. Before the conventions, the meme that was starting to settle in (but was lost in the Romney 47% implosion) is that Romney has a swing state problem. Regardless of the national polls, Romney has no shot if he cant dislodge the President in the swing states. Now the the race is back where it was, the Republican's must keep that meme from again dominating the narrative. They do this in two ways:
1) By still claiming that have the momentum, even though the national polls started moving back to the President a week ago; and,
2) By claiming that state polls are closer than they actually are by emphasizing the robo-pollsters and downplaying the high-quality pollsters.
We must stop this meme from further taking hold with the "Villagers".
8:10 AM PT: So sorry so many took this seriously, Of course it was snark! No, there will not be a constitutional amendment in the next two weeks. No, the crap robopolls are not more accurate as a group than the high quality polls that call cell phones, and no, neither candidate will take undecides by huge margin. But you would have to buy at leat one of those to spin "Romney in the Drivers Seat", and Spin they must.