The election is in two weeks. How will it turn out? Obviously no one has the answers. But the results won't be determined all at once; it will happen state by state, hour by hour, minute by agonizing minute. So in this diary, I just want to do two things: provide the closing times for polls in every state, and provide a reasonable scenario of how things will look.
Things might turn out better or worse for us, but things will mostly unfold according to plan. Read on to find out...
First, poll closing times. Many states do not close all at once, so to simplify I will list states according to their latest closing time. 2012 swing states are listed first in bold, and the times they were called on November 4, 2008 are listed in parentheses. Note: some states weren't officially called until many days later!
7:00PM EST
Virginia (11:13PM), Indiana, Kentucky, Georgia, South Carolina, Vermont
7:30PM EST
North Carolina (Thursday Nov. 6), Ohio (9:23PM), West Virginia
8:00PM EST
Florida (11:16PM), New Hampshire (8PM), Alabama, Connecticut, Delaware, D.C., Illinois, Maryland, Massachusetts, Michigan, Mississippi, Missouri, New Jersey, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, Tennessee, Texas
8:30PM EST
Arkansas
9:00PM EST
Colorado (11:35PM), Wisconsin (9PM), Kansas, North Dakota, South Dakota, Arizona, Louisiana, Maine, Minnesota, New Mexico, New York, Rhode Island, Wyoming
10:00PM EST
Iowa (10PM), Nevada (11:44PM), Nebraska, Idaho, Montana, Utah
11:00PM EST
California, Hawaii, Oregon, Washington
12:00AM EST
Alaska
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Okay, onto times and totals:
7PM - Strong Romney states except for Vermont, and Virginia will not be called for a while
EC Votes: Obama 3, Romney 44, Undecided 13
7:30PM - In 2008 North Carolina wasn't officially called for days, and Ohio wasn't until past 9PM. West Virginia goes red
EC Votes: Obama 3, Romney 49, Undecided 46
8:00PM - Many states report. In my judgment New Hampshire stays blue, so I will call it here. Missouri actually wasn't called until November 19, but I will call it red right away.
EC Votes: Obama 111, Romney 130, Undecided 75
8:30PM - Hopefully Hillary changes things in 2016.
EC Votes: Obama 111, Romney 136, Undecided 75
9:00PM - The next big wave of states. Colorado not called until past 11, but Wisconsin was called immediately, and I think it'll be safe blue in 2012. Colorado will probably be close this year.
EC Votes: Obama 173, Romney 170, Undecided 84
10:00PM - This will probably be the decision hour, as I predict Ohio will be called between 10 and 11PM for Obama! Unfortunately, this time NE-2 goes red.
EC Votes: Obama 203, Romney 188, Undecided 66
11:00PM - President Barrack Obama is reelected as the President of the United States. Virginia and Colorado will be called blue before midnight.
EC Votes: Obama 303, Romney 188, Undecided 44
12:00AM - All states except Florida and North Carolina will be decided by now, but now the recriminations begin on the red side, and Team Blue can take a much deserved rest.
EC Votes: Obama 303, Romney 191, Undecided 44
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Obviously this is an imagined scenario, perhaps optimistic, but realistic. Looking ahead, it seems that the time between 9 and 10PM EST will be the critical one, as the four smaller swing states of Colorado, Iowa, Nevada and Wisconsin are due to be called then. Combined with the result of Ohio, the results of these 4 contests should determine the election.
Okay, none of this is an excuse to slack off of contribution and GOTV. Let's bring this home for President Obama!
2:10 PM PT: UPDATE: Please note an error: Maine's polls close at 8PM instead of 9 as I erroneously listed.
Also note that Pennsylvania and Michigan were called immediately, while Indiana wasn't called until 2AM
Tue Oct 30, 2012 at 1:26 PM PT: UPDATE #2: As pointed out below, the last polls in Texas close at 9PM.